How will climate risk affect mortgage lending in 2026?

As a mortgage broker, understanding the impact of climate risk on lending decisions is crucial for your clients' financial future. This mortgage broker climate risk lending guide 2026 outlines the emerging trends, regulatory pressures, and practical considerations for property finance in Australia. Lenders are increasingly incorporating climate risk assessments into their property valuations and lending policies, driven by both regulatory guidance and a growing awareness of physical and transition risks. For conveyancers and brokers alike, this means a new layer of due diligence is becoming standard practice.

What is APRA's stance on climate risk in mortgages?

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The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has been clear in its expectations for lenders regarding climate-related financial risks. APRA's guidance, particularly its prudential practice guides (PPGs) on climate risk, encourages financial institutions to identify, assess, and manage these risks. While not yet prescriptive in mandating specific lending criteria based on climate risk, APRA expects entities to integrate climate risk into their risk management frameworks, governance, and strategic planning. By 2026, this will likely translate into more explicit bank lending climate risk policy 2026, influencing loan-to-value ratios, interest rates, and even the insurability of properties in high-risk areas. Brokers need to be prepared for lenders to ask more detailed questions about a property's climate resilience.

How do lenders assess property climate risk?

Lender climate risk assessment property evaluations are becoming more sophisticated. Traditionally, this focused on structural integrity and location desirability. Now, it extends to understanding a property's exposure to physical climate hazards such as bushfires, floods, extreme heat, and coastal erosion. Lenders are using data from sources like the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and CSIRO, alongside specialised climate analytics platforms, to model potential future impacts. This assessment influences:

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Property Valuation: Properties in high-risk zones may see reduced valuations or slower capital growth.
Loan Affordability: Increased insurance premiums or uninsurability can impact a borrower's ability to service a loan.
Loan Servicing: Lenders may require higher deposit levels or adjust debt-to-income ratios for properties with significant climate risk.
Insurance Availability: This is becoming a critical lending condition. If a property cannot be insured at a reasonable cost, a loan may be declined.

What are the key climate risks for Australian properties?

Australia's diverse geography means a range of climate risks are relevant. For instance:

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Bushfire: Properties in peri-urban and rural areas, particularly in NSW, Victoria, and WA, face increasing bushfire risk. Agencies like the NSW Rural Fire Service provide crucial mapping data.
Flood: Increased intensity of rainfall events, as predicted by BOM, elevates flood risk across many riverine and coastal areas, impacting regions from Queensland to Tasmania. The Queensland Reconstruction Authority (QRA) is a key agency in flood-prone areas.
Coastal Erosion and Sea Level Rise: Properties along Australia's extensive coastline are vulnerable.
Extreme Heat: Affects building materials, energy costs for cooling, and occupant health, particularly in inland and northern regions.

Understanding these specific risks is part of essential mortgage broker climate due diligence.

How does insurance availability impact mortgage lending?

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The availability and cost of home and contents insurance are becoming paramount for lenders. In areas prone to frequent or severe natural disasters, insurers are reassessing their risk exposure. This can lead to:

Increased Premiums: Making home ownership less affordable.
Limited Coverage: Policies may exclude certain perils or have higher deductibles.
Withdrawal of Insurers: In extreme cases, insurers may cease offering cover in certain high-risk postcodes.

For a mortgage broker, confirming that a property is insurable at a reasonable cost is now a non-negotiable step in the lending process. Lenders will often require proof of current, adequate insurance as a condition of settlement.

What is the role of a mortgage broker in climate risk assessment?

Mortgage brokers can add significant value by proactively addressing climate risk. Instead of waiting for a lender to flag an issue, brokers can:

Educate Clients: Inform buyers and investors about potential climate risks associated with their chosen property and how it might affect their loan application and insurance.
Pre-assess Properties: Utilise tools like ClimateNest to get an early understanding of a property's climate risk profile before a formal valuation. This allows for early identification of potential hurdles.
Advise on Lender Policies: Stay informed about which lenders are more climate-aware and how their policies might differ.
Facilitate Insurance Discussions: Guide clients on the importance of securing appropriate insurance early in the process.

By integrating climate risk awareness into their practice, brokers can differentiate themselves, build stronger client relationships, and ensure smoother loan approvals.

What data supports climate risk in lending?

While specific Australian statistics on mortgage defaults directly attributed to climate events are still emerging, the trend is clear. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports on housing finance, and while not directly linking to climate, it highlights the overall market dynamics. However, the increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters, as documented by BOM, directly correlate with rising insurance claims and potential property damage. For example, the 2022-23 flood events across eastern Australia resulted in billions of dollars in insured losses, a cost that ultimately impacts property values and insurability. Lenders are responding to this growing financial exposure.

Climate Risk Factors in Property Lending
Risk Factor	Impact on Lending	Data Sources
Bushfire Prone Land	Higher insurance premiums, potential loan refusal, stricter building codes	CSIRO, State Fire Services (e.g., NSW RFS), Local Council Planning Maps
Flood Risk (Riverine/Pluvial)	Increased insurance costs, reduced LVR, potential loan refusal in high-risk zones	BOM, State Emergency Services, Local Council Flood Studies
Coastal Erosion/Sea Level Rise	Long-term valuation concerns, potential uninsurability, stricter lending criteria for new builds	CSIRO, Geoscience Australia, Local Council Coastal Hazard Assessments
Extreme Heat/Drought	Impacts on building materials, increased utility costs affecting serviceability, potential water restrictions	BOM, ABS (Household expenditure surveys)

For mortgage brokers, staying ahead of these trends is key. Understanding how climate risk influences lender climate risk assessment property decisions and APRA climate risk mortgage guidance will be essential for providing informed advice. Explore how ClimateNest can assist you and your clients in understanding these risks. Visit our pricing page to learn more about our services, or check any Australian address for its climate risk profile.

Help your clients understand climate risk before their loan is assessed.