Climate Risk Profile: Macarthur, ACT
Macarthur faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to increased rainfall intensity and higher average temperatures. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Macarthur experiences a notable risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days projected. Vulnerable populations are particularly at risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
flood Risk
Macarthur faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby waterways. Development patterns and stormwater management contribute to the risk profile.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Stormwater capacity
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
As an inland suburb, Macarthur has a negligible risk associated with coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from coast
Projections (RCP2.6)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in Macarthur is moderate due to its proximity to grasslands and some wooded areas. While not directly surrounded by dense forest, ember attack and grassfires pose a threat during dry periods.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Wind patterns
- ·Ember attack
Projections (RCP4.5)
2030
4.2
2050
4.5
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a negative impact on property values.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
- 2.Assess property's bushfire risk and mitigation measures.
- 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options for heatwaves.
- 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Lake Tuggeranong
- Elevation Range
- 580-600m
- Flood Zone
- Areas adjacent to Lake Tuggeranong and stormwater channels
Historical flood events have primarily affected low-lying areas near the lake and drainage channels. Improved stormwater infrastructure is being implemented to reduce future risks.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Approximately 2km to nearest grassland
- Planning Overlay
- ACT Emergency Services Agency Bushfire Overlay
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The suburb is designated as a bushfire-prone area, requiring properties to adhere to specific building standards and vegetation management practices.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 28.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
The urban heat island effect can exacerbate heatwave conditions in Macarthur, particularly in areas with limited green space. Vulnerable populations are advised to take precautions during extreme heat events.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 150 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Severe thunderstorm with heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Macarthur.
SourceProlonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C impacted vulnerable residents.
SourceThe 2003 Canberra bushfires impacted the region, with smoke and ash affecting Macarthur.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 6.5 | 6.8(+0.3) | 7.2(+0.7) |
| bushfire | 4.0 | 4.1(+0.1) | 4.3(+0.3) |
| heat | 6.0 | 6.6(+0.6) | 7.5(+1.5) |
| coastal | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Macarthur is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, along with an increased risk of flooding due to heavier rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve stormwater infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement heatwave early warning system
ImmediateDevelop a system to alert vulnerable residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreEnhance bushfire preparedness
Near-termConduct community education programs on bushfire safety and implement vegetation management strategies.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote water conservation
Long-termEncourage residents to conserve water through rebates and educational campaigns to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreIncrease urban green space
Long-termPlant more trees and create green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreAbout macarthur's Climate Risk Profile
Macarthur, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. Flooding is a primary concern due to increased rainfall intensity and potential overflow from nearby waterways. The suburb's development patterns and stormwater management infrastructure play a crucial role in mitigating this risk.
Bushfire risk is moderate, with the potential for grassfires and ember attacks during dry periods. While not directly surrounded by dense forest, the proximity to grasslands necessitates preparedness and preventative measures.
Heatwaves pose a significant threat, with rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days projected. Vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, are particularly at risk during these events.
Coastal risks are negligible due to Macarthur's inland location. However, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, may indirectly affect the suburb. Adaptation measures are essential to build resilience and protect the community from the impacts of climate change.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate
Local Government Resources
ACT Government
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate risks facing Macarthur?
Macarthur faces primary risks from flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
How can I prepare my home for a flood?
You can prepare your home by elevating appliances, clearing gutters and downpipes, and having an emergency plan in place. Check the ACT Government's flood maps to understand your property's risk.
What should I do during a heatwave?
During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
How can I protect my property from bushfires?
You can protect your property by maintaining a clear buffer zone around your home, removing flammable materials, and having a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.
What is the council doing to address climate change in Macarthur?
The ACT Government is implementing a range of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, including upgrading stormwater infrastructure, promoting energy efficiency, and increasing urban green space. Refer to the ACT Climate Change Strategy for more details.
Where can I find information about emergency services in Macarthur?
Information about emergency services, including bushfire and flood warnings, can be found on the ACT Emergency Services Agency (ESA) website.
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